First off, let's take a look at my pre-season rankings.
Julia's Pre-Season Predictions for the Final Rankings
4. Nyle & Peta
5. Ginger & Val
6. Paige & Mark
I actually had a pretty good streak going for awhile there, correctly predicting all of the first six eliminations in order. But that all changed once we hit Top 6, and from there we saw my originally predicted finalists as the next three to exit. I did say in the original post that I did think there was a decent chance of Jodie & Keo getting fifth place and Ginger & Val getting second. I also thought that Nyle had a shot at Top 3 over Wanya, which did come true. The biggest surprise for me here was Paige. While I was pretty sure she'd be the best dancer of them all, I was convinced she was going to fall victim to a "shocking" elimination due to larger fanbases and "bigger" personalities overtaking her. I must say, I was very glad to be wrong about this one!
Rankings of Contestants' Dance Experience Pre-Season
1. Paige VanZant
2. Ginger Zee
4. Wanya Morris
12. Nyle DiMarco
This wasn't exactly a prediction of who I thought would be the best dancers (though I was pretty sure Paige would, in fact, be the most skilled this season); more like those who had an advantage going into the competiton. Regardless, it's interesting that the two people on top and the person at the very bottom of this list were the three that wound up making it this far.
Pre-Season Media Coverage/Relevancy
3. Ginger Zee
8. Nyle DiMarco
10. Paige VanZant
I don't think this ended up factoring into who got far in the game, except maybe Ginger's regular coverage on Good Morning America. Just goes to show that what happens on the show itself is usually what really counts.
Predicted Ability to Gain Favoribility among the Audience (previous fanbases aside)
1. Nyle DiMarco
3. Ginger Zee
8. Paige VanZant
Looks like I was right on the money with Nyle, as well as Ginger. I thought Paige's personality would get lost in a sea of other more memorable ones, but it's nice to see she managed to stand out amongst the crowd to get all the way to the finals! And I think I was pretty close with everyone else.
This next list proved to be very telling. Check it out:
Teaching/Choreographing Ability and Overall Favoribility of Pros
1. Val Chmerkovskiy
2. Mark Ballas
3. Peta Murgatroyd
I didn't list every single pro here because it didn't seem necessary (and probably would have resulted in some angry commenters). The point was to highlight the ones that-for one reason or another-would likely give their partners a significant advantage or disadvantage in the competition. And wouldn't you know it? The top three names on this list are the last three standing this season, and the fourth was eliminated just one week before the finals. While there are obviously other factors that help determine how long a couple stays in the game, there is no way this is a coincidence. I'll be diving deeper into this topic once the season is over, but this right here is evidence that pro fanbases and abilities are a big factor in this game, and are likely much more relevant than some viewers believe.
Anyway now that I'm done with all that for now, here are my rankings going into the last week.
Rankings of Finalists' Dance Ability
1. Paige VanZant
2. Nyle DiMarco
3. Ginger Zee
I don't think it can be argued that anyone other than Paige is technically the best dancer remaining. The other two are very good as well, but Paige is the only person this entire season that has delivered great performances every single week. Going into Week 10 I ranked Nyle second and Ginger third, but they are actually pretty close in ability and I think these rankings have a chance of changing by the end of the season if Ginger continues to improve and Nyle remains at the level he's been at for most of the season.
Advantages for the Redemption Round
1. Ginger Zee
2. Paige VanZant
3. Nyle DiMarco
As I mentioned in the weeky group post, Ginger has Jazz for this round, which is a HUGE advantage seeing as the style is both the most relaxed when it comes to rules and the most open to interpretation by the choreographer. Paige was likely to fare well no matter what, because she hasn't had a bad dance at all this season. She has Salsa, which was the dance she had to do with Alan back in Week 2 when Mark was injured. She did great the first time around and while it's no Jazz, Salsa does allow for lifts which most other Latin dances do not. Nyle has Quickstep, and as such is the only person given a style that was arguably his worst of the season the first time around, so it's really the only one that fits the purpose of this challenge. Unfortunately, that also puts him at a disadvantage compared to the two ladies.
Advantages for the Freestyle Round
1. Paige VanZant
2. Nyle DiMarco
3. Ginger Zee
This particular round is going to be interesting because it looks like we're getting not one, but two Contemporary-based (or at least stripped-down) Freestyles. As many have predicted, Nyle and Peta will be doing one, but kind of surprisingly, so will Paige and Mark. Contemporary Freestyles weren't really a thing on this show until Melissa Rycroft and Tony Dovolani did a game-changing one back in Season 15. From then onward, there has been at least one "stripped down" Freestyle every season except one, and five out of those seven seasons were won by a couple who went that route. And it makes sense; these routines have proven to evoke emotion in the audience, so it seems like a smart idea to go in that direction.
Mark is generally known for going over-the-top with routines, especially during this round, but he always says his main aim is to entertain the audience. That, plus Paige's strong dance ability, gives this couple a big advantage. Peta is great at showcasing her partners, and since Nyle's journey has already been a moving one for so many people, what better way to cap it off than with a dance like this?
Ginger and Val are using a relatively more upbeat song for their Freestyle, which could help set them apart from the other two couples. However, as I said earlier this week, Val's hasn't seemed to master the art of the Freestyle like the other remaining pros have. He could pull out a surprise, but for now I think Paige and Nyle have much clearer advantages going into this round on Monday.
Overall Audience Favoribility
1. Nyle & Peta
2. Paige & Mark
3. Ginger & Val
This was difficult because I've seen lots of positivity towards each of the final three celebrities, but also quite a bit of negativity. Paige has been called "sweet" and "adorable" but also "cold" and "stuck-up". Ginger has been called "fun" and "hilarious" but also "boring" and "annoying". And Nyle has been called "humble" and "inspirational" but also "conceited" and "a sob story". I think a good portion of the audience has absolutely fallen in love with Nyle and his vision, and I don't see that letting up now. I also think Paige has had a pretty good journey on DWTS in allowing herself to build a connection with her partner. I have Ginger in last because while she is likeable I don't think she's had as much of an obvious "journey" as the other two. I'm just not sure what her story is supposed to be or what she's taken away from this experience. But I can see why a viewer would be able to connect with any of the three finalists.
Oh, I guess I should do a list for my (revised) predicted final rankings. If the competition were to end now and the winner be decided based on the scores and votes from last week, I think it'd go the same as my last list. But things could change on Monday, so I guess we'll see. I'd love to hear your opinions about anything dicsussed in this post in the comments! Thanks for reading, and I'll see you soon!
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