Dance Experience/Potential
1. Heather Morris
2. Nomani Kordei
3. Erika Jayne
4. Simone Biles
4. Simone Biles
5. Rashad Jennings
6. Nancy Kerrigan
7. Charo
6. Nancy Kerrigan
7. Charo
8. Bonner Bolton
9. Nick Viall
9. Nick Viall
10. David Ross
11. Chris Kattan
12. Mr. T
I ranked these 1-12 but other than Heather on top everyone is pretty much in two groups: the people with high-moderate potential (2-7) and the people with low potential (8-12). As I said, Heather, being a professional dancer, is obviously in a class by herself and clearly has the biggest advantage in this regard this season despite never studying ballroom before.
I put Normani next because while she is not a professional she dances in Fifth Harmony videos (and also has done some gymnastics in her life) and seems like a very fluid and capable mover. Erika is #3 because being on the older side may give her a slight disadvantage compared to Normani, but Erika has actually studied certain forms of dance such as ballet (but again, not ballroom).
Simone is a gymnast and previous contestants in this field have typically done well on DWTS, and while I think she may have some issues like hitting the moves too hard she is obviously young and very flexible so there's a lot of potential there. Rashad doesn't seem to have had formal dance training, but he's relatively young and seems like he can move. Nancy is a figure skater-another sport that has produced several successful DWTS contestants-but being one of the older ones this season may lessen that advantage a bit. Charo's situation is similar, since she's THE oldest this season, but she has quite a bit of dance training so she's still above everyone else.
The rest don't seem to have a lot of experience and I haven't seen anything to indicate they'll be great dancers so I pretty much just ranked them by age.
I ranked these 1-12 but other than Heather on top everyone is pretty much in two groups: the people with high-moderate potential (2-7) and the people with low potential (8-12). As I said, Heather, being a professional dancer, is obviously in a class by herself and clearly has the biggest advantage in this regard this season despite never studying ballroom before.
I put Normani next because while she is not a professional she dances in Fifth Harmony videos (and also has done some gymnastics in her life) and seems like a very fluid and capable mover. Erika is #3 because being on the older side may give her a slight disadvantage compared to Normani, but Erika has actually studied certain forms of dance such as ballet (but again, not ballroom).
Simone is a gymnast and previous contestants in this field have typically done well on DWTS, and while I think she may have some issues like hitting the moves too hard she is obviously young and very flexible so there's a lot of potential there. Rashad doesn't seem to have had formal dance training, but he's relatively young and seems like he can move. Nancy is a figure skater-another sport that has produced several successful DWTS contestants-but being one of the older ones this season may lessen that advantage a bit. Charo's situation is similar, since she's THE oldest this season, but she has quite a bit of dance training so she's still above everyone else.
The rest don't seem to have a lot of experience and I haven't seen anything to indicate they'll be great dancers so I pretty much just ranked them by age.
Recent Media Coverage/Relevancy
1. Normani Kordei
2. Simone Biles
3. Nick Viall
4. David Ross
5. Erika Jayne
6. Rashad Jennings
7. Nancy Kerrigan
8. Heather Morris
9. Charo
10. Bonner Bolton
11. Mr. T
12. Chris Kattan
Fifth Harmony has gotten a lot of press lately due to the exit of one of their members, so while I haven't seen a lot about Normani specifically in the weeks prior to the DWTS pre-season, she is clearly very relevant and popular right now. Simone, despite the Olympics ending seven months ago, still gets a lot of media coverage; her most notable press recently happened a few weeks ago when her photoshoot for Sports Illustrated was published. Nick, being the face of The Bachelor for the past few months has gotten a lot of media attention from ABC, but it's worth noting that a lot of other outlets have been interviewing him more than they have previous Bachelors. And many people are still feeling the hype of the Chicago Cubs' big World Series victory back in November, so that will probably help out David on the show.
Erika is a cast member on The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills so that means regular media coverage for her. Rashad was playing for the New York Giants up until recently and is now a free agent, so he's been getting his fair share of press too. And Nancy has been coming back into the forefront of people's minds a bit now that the I, Tonya biopic about her skating rival is being produced.
Glee ended two years ago (seriously, exactly two years ago today!) and Heather has stayed out of the spotlight since then for the most part, but the show still has it's fans. While Charo isn't as big as she once was, she still performs regularly. Bonner's moment in the spotlight was recent but it doesn't seem to have been that major, relatively speaking. And while Mr. T and Chris were both HUGE at one point (Mr. T more than Chris) there hasn't been all that much from them heard in recent years.
Fifth Harmony has gotten a lot of press lately due to the exit of one of their members, so while I haven't seen a lot about Normani specifically in the weeks prior to the DWTS pre-season, she is clearly very relevant and popular right now. Simone, despite the Olympics ending seven months ago, still gets a lot of media coverage; her most notable press recently happened a few weeks ago when her photoshoot for Sports Illustrated was published. Nick, being the face of The Bachelor for the past few months has gotten a lot of media attention from ABC, but it's worth noting that a lot of other outlets have been interviewing him more than they have previous Bachelors. And many people are still feeling the hype of the Chicago Cubs' big World Series victory back in November, so that will probably help out David on the show.
Erika is a cast member on The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills so that means regular media coverage for her. Rashad was playing for the New York Giants up until recently and is now a free agent, so he's been getting his fair share of press too. And Nancy has been coming back into the forefront of people's minds a bit now that the I, Tonya biopic about her skating rival is being produced.
Glee ended two years ago (seriously, exactly two years ago today!) and Heather has stayed out of the spotlight since then for the most part, but the show still has it's fans. While Charo isn't as big as she once was, she still performs regularly. Bonner's moment in the spotlight was recent but it doesn't seem to have been that major, relatively speaking. And while Mr. T and Chris were both HUGE at one point (Mr. T more than Chris) there hasn't been all that much from them heard in recent years.
Potential to Gain Audience Favoribility (previous fanbases aside)
1. Rashad Jennings
2. Normani Kordei
3. Simone Biles
4. David Ross
5. Mr. T
6. Bonner Bolton
6. Bonner Bolton
7. Charo
8. Nick Viall
9. Nancy Kerrigan
9. Nancy Kerrigan
10. Heatehr Morris
11. Erika Jayne
12. Chris Kattan
Rashad seem to be the type of guy that usually appeals to people across many demographics, which is important on this show. I think Normani and Simone may be too; I put the former over the latter because in this cast Normani's possible dance advantages will likely go relatively unnoticed while Simone's, being a gymnast following up another gymnast who won last season, will be more in the forefront of viewers' minds. I think David and Mr. T will have an appeal similar to Rashad's but with less dancing skills.
Bonner seems like the type a lot of the DWTS demographic would go for (good looking, country boy, inspiring backstory, possible showmance) but right now he seems very dull and boring so that may detract from his assets. Charo is another one that could go either way; I think some will find her antics funny but others will be annoyed by her. Nick and Nancy too, since so far they seem like they could be charming but they have tarnished reputations in the media that may or may not be true.
Heather and Erika are both in a tough spot. Heather's career as a professional dancer has already turned people off of her even before "meeting" her on the show, and it's going to take a lot to win that crowd over. With Erika, I personally think she's pleasant and funny but I feel like others may see her as "too sexual" and be put off by that, and may not understand her style of humor. (I really hope I'm wrong about this one.)
So far Chris isn't making much of an impression on me. I guess maybe some viewers will like his comedy skills, but I'm already seeing people calling him "creepy". That's not a good sign.
Rashad seem to be the type of guy that usually appeals to people across many demographics, which is important on this show. I think Normani and Simone may be too; I put the former over the latter because in this cast Normani's possible dance advantages will likely go relatively unnoticed while Simone's, being a gymnast following up another gymnast who won last season, will be more in the forefront of viewers' minds. I think David and Mr. T will have an appeal similar to Rashad's but with less dancing skills.
Bonner seems like the type a lot of the DWTS demographic would go for (good looking, country boy, inspiring backstory, possible showmance) but right now he seems very dull and boring so that may detract from his assets. Charo is another one that could go either way; I think some will find her antics funny but others will be annoyed by her. Nick and Nancy too, since so far they seem like they could be charming but they have tarnished reputations in the media that may or may not be true.
Heather and Erika are both in a tough spot. Heather's career as a professional dancer has already turned people off of her even before "meeting" her on the show, and it's going to take a lot to win that crowd over. With Erika, I personally think she's pleasant and funny but I feel like others may see her as "too sexual" and be put off by that, and may not understand her style of humor. (I really hope I'm wrong about this one.)
So far Chris isn't making much of an impression on me. I guess maybe some viewers will like his comedy skills, but I'm already seeing people calling him "creepy". That's not a good sign.
Teaching/Choreographing Ability and Overall Favoribility of Pros
1. Sharna Burgess
2. Val Chmerkovskiy
3. Lindsay Arnold
4. Peta Murgatroyd
5. Maksim Chmerkovskiy
6. Sasha Farber
7. Kym Johnson-Herjavec
8. Emma Slater
9. Witney Carson
10. Gleb Savchenko
11. Artem Chigvintsev
12. Keo Motsepe
Julia's Predictions for the Final Rankings
12. Chris & Witney
11. Charo & Keo
10. Nick & Peta
9. Erika & Gleb
8. Nancy & Artem
7. Mr. T & Kym
6. Bonner & Sharna
5. Heather & Maks
4. David & Lindsay
3. Simone & Sasha
2. Normani & Val
2. Normani & Val
1. Rashad & Emma
Please note that this isn't based entirely on predictions a to how good of dancers they;re going to be. I've seen so many bootlists based on that and they're ridiculous IMO. I won't go through all of my reasoning right now because I want to make sure this is posted prior to showtime, but a couple notes as to why some people are where they are: I think Heather is going to suffer in votes but the producers will want to keep her around. I highly doubt either she or Simone will win because of the backlash, but Simone's seemingly strong partnership with Sasha may get them more votes. I wasn't even going to put them in the Finals, but given the recent pattern of the 2:1 gender ratio with the minority gender winning it made sense with Rashad being my winner pick. That's pretty much the only reason I did the list that way, because at this point I wouldn't be surprised to see Simone cut at Semi-Finals (or even Quarter-Finals if we're already down to five people that week) and same with Heather. If Normani wins I predict Rashad and either Bonner or David will be in the Finals with her.
That's it for now (I'll probably talk about this more later this week.) Hope everyone enjoys the premiere!
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