LESS THAN 24 HOURS UNTIL THE SEASON 25 PREMIERE! THIS IS NOT A DRILL, PEOPLE!
That also means it's time for a fun tradition the Dancing With the Stars fandom does every season! Leading up to the premiere, Dance Entertainment Writer/Correspondent Kristyn Burtt runs a predictions game which consists of participants predicting who the top 4 couples of the season will be/where they'll place, putting them in an envelope (some people like to decorate theirs!) and opening it up after the winner is announced on Finale night to see how they did!
I wanted to share some insight on this because I actually won this little game last season (at least I think I did. I didn't get the placements exactly right, but to my knowledge I was one of two people to correctly predict who the top 4 couples would be. If someone else did better than we did then they should probably be writing this piece, but I don't even know if they exist so I'll have to do for now). Here is a quick explanation I gave for my choices after opening my envelope at the end of Season 24 back in May.
I wanted to share some more in-depth tips for putting together your bootlist here on the blog. This will be a little different from last season's though because we're most likely going to be left with four couples on the first night of the Finale, whereas last season I had to factor in an elimination the week before the Finals. If we ever have a season set to go into the last week with three couples, I'll probably do a revised version of this since there's an important factor to take into account for that which won't show up in a four-couple Final. But for now, here are some things to keep in mind:
1. Dance ability matters...but not as much as you think it does.
Yes, this show is called Dancing With the Stars, but if you simply pick the contestants you think will be the best dancers, rank them 1-4 and call that your bootlist, you're almost guaranteed to be wrong. There will definitely be some strong dancers in the top 4, and you should include them on your list, but it would be very naive to assume the four best dancers of the season will all make it to the end.
I would suggest starting your list by choosing the one contestant you think will be the very best dancer of the season, AKA "The Ringer" That person is a safe bet for your top 4 predictions since they almost always makes the Finale.
Examples of the Ringer in past seasons:
Gilles Marini (Season 8)
Mya (Season 9)
Zendaya (Season 16)
Corbin Bleu (Season 17)
Riker Lynch (Season 20)
Paige VanZant (Season 22)
Yes, there will probably be other good dancers in the competition, but usually only one - MAYBE two - people can get by on dancing alone; there is much more to winning this show than technical ability. For instance...
2. Likability goes a long way.
This is the #1 thing that people forget when making Finale predictions: nearly every season, we end up with a finalist who is clearly lacking in dance skills compared to the other remaining contestants (and has probably taken out someone who was much stronger in that department) but has gotten a lot of people to root for them by being very likable. And by "very likable" I mean appealing to the show's main demographic. For your next top 4 pick, choose someone who's dance skills seem less than promising, but might strongly appeal to the main DWTS demo (middle-aged conservative-leaning white women) for some other reason. We'll call this contestant "The Everyman (or Everwoman)" for now, but I'm trying to think of a name that fits better so please send in suggestions!
Examples of the Everyman/woman in past seasons:
Bristol Palin (Season 11)
Kirstie Alley (Season 12)
Kelly Monaco (Season 15)
Bill Engvall (Season 17)
Noah Galloway (Season 20)
David Ross (Season 24)
Like I said, a lot of people laughed at the idea of any of these people making the Finals their season.. But more often than not, something like this happens, and then people treat it as some kind of anomaly the next season and go right back to predicting a Finale full of the best dancers. Don't be like them, become a "demo whisperer" and you'll be the one laughing when the Finals roll around and your underdog is still standing.
3. The best of both worlds.
You've now based one decision entirely on dance ability, and another on likability and demographic appeal. Now it's time to look at the cast and find someone who is likely to encompass both sides of the coin. This is often someone who has strong dance potential as well as some sort of emotional backstory, lovable personality or is a nostalgic figure for the main demo. We'll call them "The All-Arounder".
Examples of the All-Arounder in past seasons:
Jennifer Grey (Season 10)
Kellie Pickler (Season 16)
Alfonso Ribeiro (Season 19)
Rumer Willis (Season 20)
Bindi Irwin (Season 21)
Rashad Jennings (Season 24)
This will likely be the most crucial choice for your top 4, so decide carefully!
4. Remember, this is reality TV.
While Dancing With the Stars is a dance competition (and I mean that in the loosest way possible) it's first and foremost a reality TV show. And as with any television program, the name of the game is ratings and money. While the audience may have their favorites, the show's producers often have an agenda too. Sometimes, they have their own ideas of who should make it to the endgame, and will play around with things to help make that happen. Usually the motive for this is to keep around a certain celebrity who is doing something extra for the show or the network (ex. going on the DWTS live tour or starring on another ABC program) or a pro who they're trying to help make a splash with the audience. That's not to say anything bad about the production favorite - or "The Producers' Pet" - as they often have great dance skills and nice personalities, but for some reason just aren't as popular with the demo as others.
Examples of the Producers' Pet in past seasons:
Chelsea Kane (Season 12)
William Levy (Season 14)
Janel Parrish (Season 19)
Ginger Zee (Season 22)
Jana Kramer (Season 23)
Normani Kordei (Season 24)
Sometimes, this couple happens to fall under one of the previous categories, but other times they don't, and an audience favorite is "sacrificed at the altar" in order to make room for them in the Finals. If the contestant you think is most likely to be favored by production does fall under one of the other three categories I've mentioned, your best bet is probably to select a second "All-Arounder" to round out your top 4.
5. Putting it all together.
You're almost done; you have your four couples chosen; The Ringer, the Every(wo)man, the All-Arounder, and either the Producers' Pet or a second All-Arounder. Now it's time to put them in order of where they'll place!
To be honest, this is more of an art than a science; while there is usually a bit of a pattern in the way this tends to play out, there are often deviations to it. Last season I predicted against the pattern (because of a trend of top 3's consisting of the winner being the opposite gender of the second- and third-placers) was incorrect, and the archetype pattern ended up being broken in another way! But this is how it generally how things play out in seasons with four couples remaining on the first night of the Finals:
4th Place: The Producers' Pet
Sometimes production has a specific person they want to win the competition, but most of the time they mainly care about getting their favorite to the Finals. Once that happens, the extra promotion and favoritism stops stops, and this couple usually ends up being the first elimination of the Finals.
3rd Place: The Everyman/woman/person/see this is why I need a better nickname
While you can get far on personality and demographic appeal, you need to be a good dancer in order to win. This archetype usually ends up in third, but can get as far as second place (as we saw happen with David Ross last season) but when it comes down to it, this isn't entirely a popularity contest. :P
2nd Place: The Ringer
We've seen this scenario time and time again: someone with a strong dance background signs up for DWTS, and they're a frontrunner from the get-go. They deliver consistently dazzling performances week after week - possibly ending the season with the highest overall average - but when it comes down to that "Mirrorball moment" they come up juuuuuust short of the title, most likely because they simply didn't connect as well with the audience as...
1st Place: The All-Arounder
This person has all the ingredients needed in the recipe for a Mirrorball champion. They've performed well, entertained the crowd, and kept us invested in their journey and partnership all the way through. They've managed to maintain the most widespread level of appeal with the judges and viewers alike, and that's why they'll be the one taking home the title and the trophy at the end of the season.
To end things off...
I feel like I need to put a disclaimer here: this is obviously not going to guarantee anything. I can't see into the future and tell you exactly who to pick in order to win (if I could, I'd have won a few lotteries by now :P). These are merely things to keep in mind if you like to play bootlist or winner pick games like Kristyn's envelope one.
Speaking of which, if you're participating this season, remember to take a photo of your envelope and post it before tonight's premiere begins! We're also going to be hosting a bootlist game here on the blog, which you can enter by commenting on this post or that upcoming one before showtime or direct messaging any of us on Twitter.
See you soon!
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